论文部分内容阅读
本文运用我国31个省域1997-2012年的相关数据,构建动态空间面板计量模型,分析政府公共支出对人口迁移的生产率效应和税收效应、直接效应和空间溢出效应。实证分析表明,地方政府的公共支出规模对净迁移人口的影响单调为正,生产率效应显著为正,税收效应不显著。人口迁移在经济发展水平相当地区之间呈现区域竞争性,地理位置相邻地区之间呈现区域协同性,且这种竞争和协同关系具有滞后性。公共支出规模等因素不仅对本地区的净迁移人口有显著影响(直接效应),而且对其相邻地区产生溢出效应(间接效应)。短期看,直接效应远大于间接效应;长期看,两者的差距缩小,间接效应逐步显现。
In this paper, we use the data from 1997 to 2012 in 31 provinces in our country to construct a dynamic spatial panel measurement model to analyze the productivity effect, tax effect, direct effect and spillover effect of government public expenditure on population migration. Empirical analysis shows that the influence of the scale of public expenditure of local governments on the net migration is monotonous and positive, the productivity effect is significantly positive, and the tax effect is not significant. Population migration presents regional competition between regions with similar economic development level. Regional cooperation between adjacent regions of geographical location shows a lag in competition and synergy. The scale of public expenditure and other factors not only have a significant effect on the net migration population in the region (direct effect), but also spillover effects (indirect effects) on the neighboring regions. In the short run, the direct effect is much larger than the indirect effect. In the long run, the gap between the two is narrowing and the indirect effect gradually shows up.