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为分析煤矿政策对安全生产中的影响,回顾1978年以来煤矿政策和安全生产状况。统计了1978—2010年我国主要的煤矿政策,分阶段分析其与煤炭产量、煤矿事故指标之间的发展变化关系,运用EViews6建立煤矿事故死亡人数与煤炭产量之间的回归模型,并进行检验修正,比较验证煤矿政策的作用效果。结果表明:1978—1991年和1992—2002年,煤炭产量对死亡人数的影响系数为397.482,事故随产量的增长而加剧,但后一时期由于政策监管等因素影响,在同等产量条件下,煤矿事故相对减少;2003—2010年,影响系数为-283.770,煤矿安全状况随煤炭产量的增长而明显好转。
In order to analyze the impact of coal mine policy on safety in production, the coal mine policy and safe production situation since 1978 are reviewed. Statistics of 1978-2010 China’s main coal mine policy, phased analysis of its relationship with coal production, coal mine accident indicators of the development and changes between the use of EViews6 to establish the coal mine accident death toll and coal production between the regression model and test correction , Compare and verify the effect of coal mine policy. The results show that in 1978-1991 and 1992-2002, the influence coefficient of coal production to the death toll was 397.482, and the accident intensified with the increase of output. However, due to the influence of policy regulation and other factors in the latter period, under the same production conditions, Accident is relatively reduced; 2003-2010, the impact coefficient is -283.770, coal mine safety situation with the increase of coal output and significantly improved.