论文部分内容阅读
2009年11月份代表通货膨胀指标的消费者价格指数由负转正,普降的大雪给全国大部分地区蔬菜生产和运输带来困难,导致蔬菜等食品价格上涨,再加上居住类价格的环比上涨,推动消费者价格指数上涨。但是官方认为,目前仍不存在通胀问题。不过目前由于全球经济复苏的预期强化,整个商品市场除了美元贬值的通胀因素外还有需求的潜在支持,因此市场上对于物价上涨的预期仍十分强烈,尤其对于相对偏低的农产品来说更是看涨声一片。不过虽然市场的宏观氛围以看涨为主,但是由于大宗原料尤其蛋白原料的本身供求因素发生分歧,因此行情在春节前后将面临一定的分化。对于下面将要分析的3种饲料原料,一句话概括就是玉米温和走高,豆粕回归利润理性,鱼粉继续疯狂。
In November 2009, the consumer price index, which represents the inflation indicator, turned from negative to positive. The heavy snowfall caused difficulties in vegetable production and transportation in most parts of the country, resulting in the rise of food prices such as vegetables. In addition, the price of residential housing increased in a chain , To promote the consumer price index rose. However, officials believe there is still no inflation problem. However, due to the current global economic recovery is expected to intensify, the entire commodity market in addition to the dollar depreciation of inflation and demand there is potential for the support, so the market is still very high expectations for price increases, especially for the relatively low agricultural products is even more Bullish sound. However, although the macro atmosphere in the market is mainly bullish, due to the divergence between the supply and demand of bulk raw materials, especially protein raw materials, the market will face a certain degree of differentiation before and after the Spring Festival. For the following three kinds of feed ingredients to be analyzed, one sentence summarizes that the corn is modestly higher, the return of the rationalization of the soybean meal and the continued persistence of the fishmeal.