根据能源消费结构具有马尔可夫无后效性的特征,在马尔可夫转移矩阵理论的基础上,分别建立无规划约束条件和有规划约束条件的能源供应结构预测模型,并通过模型预测了2012-2020年福建省的一次能源消费结构.预测结果可以用来指导城市对能源储备量确定,以提高能源供应的安全性. Based on the Markov transition matrix theory, the energy consumption structure has Markov no post-efficiency features. Based on the Markov transition matrix theory, the energy supply structure prediction models with no planning constraints and planned constraints are respectively established and predicted by the model 2012 - The primary energy consumption structure in Fujian Province in 2020. The forecast result can be used to guide cities to determine the amount of energy reserves to improve the security of energy supply.