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本文应用圆形分布构成比法与余弦模型对某地开展计划兔疫前后各12年麻疹发病季节特征进行分析。求得计划免疫前麻疹的发病前峰时点为4月中旬,高峰时区为2月上旬~6月下旬;计划免疫后麻疹发病的高峰时点为3月下旬,高峰时区为元月下旬~5月中旬,显示开展计划免疫后,麻疹发病高峰有所提高,表明控制措施也应提前,通过对求得模型的拟合,并求得第二谐量三角多项式的决定系数均在96%以上,表明用该模型拟合该资料是可行的。
In this paper, the circular distribution ratio method and cosine model were used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of measles onset in each of 12 years before and after planned vaccination. Measured pre-immune measles incidence of the pre-peak point in mid-April, the peak time zone for early February to late June; measles measles immunization after the onset of peak time in late March, the peak time zone for late January to 5 In the middle of the month, the peak incidence of measles increased after the planned immunization showed that the control measures should also be advanced. Through the fitting of the obtained model and the determination coefficient of the second harmonic trigonometric polynomial, all of them were above 96% It is feasible to use this model to fit this data.