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经济的稳定增长是保证供给侧改革顺利推进的必要条件。但是,自2015年底供给侧改革正式提出以来,我国经济持续下行,当前稳增长问题值得高度重视。首先,通过检验,该文发现了我国政府支出与居民消费存在着同向性变化关系,这验证了我国确实存在消费深度习性问题。其次,改革开放以来我国需求侧管理模式的背景下,该文从考虑消费深度习性问题的视角出发,分析了拉动经济增长的主要工具组合的变化历程、原因及结果,探讨了我国企业当前存在产能过剩问题的来源,指出我国企业当前亟需进行的是升级而非转型。最后,该文通过综合比较得出,当前稳定经济增长的政策选择应主要定位于政府支出(投资)。另外,政府支出(投资)政策需要宽松的货币政策给予支撑,同时当前稳定经济增长仍然需要注重出口。
The steady economic growth is a necessary condition for ensuring the smooth progress of supply-side reform. However, since the supply-side reform was formally put forth by the end of 2015, China’s economy has continued to downturn, and the current issue of steady growth deserves our attention. First of all, through the test, this paper finds that there exists the same-directional change relationship between government expenditure and household consumption in our country, which verifies that there is indeed a deep consumption habit in our country. Second, under the background of China’s demand-side management mode since the reform and opening up, this article analyzes the course of change, causes and results of the major tool combinations that drive economic growth from the perspective of considering the deep-seated consumption habits, and discusses the current existing capacity of Chinese enterprises The source of the excess problem points out that what is urgently needed by our country’s enterprises is upgrading instead of restructuring. Finally, through a comprehensive comparison, the article draws a conclusion that the current policy choice of stabilizing economic growth should be mainly targeted at government expenditure (investment). In addition, government spending (investment) policies need to be supported by loose monetary policy, while the current steady economic growth still needs to focus on exports.