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还在80年代初叶,日本社会学界的泰斗,社会保险问题专家福武直访问中国时,已经敏锐地发现并直率地提出:“以中国目前的退休年龄和养老金标准,到本世纪末将开不出养老金来。”世界银行专家提出:“中国60年代和70年代初生育高峰时出生的大批人进入退休的时期,将是中国赡养老人负担最沉重的时期。当这批人退休时,中国每个劳动者赡养老人数目相当于发达国家1980年的2倍。而发达国家目前维护老年保险制度已很困难”。现在我国国有企业退离休职工已达3000多万,每人每年平均按5000元来计发养老金,全年就需要大约1500亿元。而我国在职职工一年的工资总额也不过4500多亿元,这1500亿元的养老退休金对于中央各级财政来说实在是个沉重的包袱。在过去几十年的计划经济下,我国缺少西方国家的养老保险制度,现在几千万离退休职工所需要的庞大的养老金费用,都要由每年新形成的养老预筹金来支付,加上不断出现企业亏损,这就难免要出现资金紧缺问题。
In the early 1980s, however, Fukushima, an expert on social insurance in the Japanese social science community, visited China with acuteness and immediately pointed out: “With the current retirement age and pensions in China, they will not be opened by the end of this century ”World Bank experts put forward:“ The large number of people born in China in the 1960s and early 1970s entering retirement will be the heaviest time for China to support the elderly, and when these people retire , The number of elderly people supported by each laborer in China is equivalent to twice the number of developed countries in 1980. In developed countries, it is now very difficult to maintain the old-age insurance system. ” At present, the state-owned enterprises in our country have already surrendered more than 30 million retired workers. Each year, an average pension of 5,000 yuan is spent on each year, requiring around 150 billion yuan for the entire year. However, the total annual wage of working staff in our country is not more than 450 billion yuan. This pension of 150 billion yuan is really a heavy burden for the finance at all levels of the Central Government. Under the planned economy of the past few decades, our country lacks the pension insurance system of the western countries. Now, the huge pension expenses required by the tens of millions of retired workers must be paid each year by the newly-formed old-age pension fund. On the continuous emergence of corporate losses, which inevitably there will be shortage of funds.