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【目的】探讨运用判别分析预测健康恒河猴(Normal)和已感染猴免疫缺陷病毒(SIV)的长期不进展(LTNP)、普通进展(NP)、快速进展(RP)4种不同类型恒河猴模型的疾病进展风险。【方法】将实验观察5年的未加干预的艾滋病恒河猴模型,按照生存时间的不同,挑选出符合LTNP、NP、RP特点的3种类型恒河猴各10只,与同期5只健康恒河猴比较,分析比较不同类型间T细胞亚群、中医证候指标的差异,找出不同类型进展风险的影响因素,并建立判别方程对其风险进行预测。【结果】感染前白细胞(WBC)计数和淋巴细胞(LYM)比例进入判别方程,平台期为甲状腺素(T4)水平和平台期Log10RNA进入判别方程。对所建立的判别函数的一致率进行检验,感染前和平台期理论判别与实际资料的总吻合率分别为57.1%和91.2%。【结论】感染前的WBC计数和LYM比例可作为评价不同进展类型的一个参考,而平台期的Log10RNA和T4水平可用于预测不同类型进展的风险。
【Objective】 To explore the use of discriminant analysis to predict the long-term non-progression (LTNP), normal progression (NP) and rapid progression (RP) of healthy monkeys (Normal) and Simian Immunodeficiency Virus (SIV) Monkey model of disease progression risk. 【Methods】 Five years of untreated AIDS rhesus monkey model were observed. Ten different types of rhesus monkeys were selected according to the different survival time, which were in line with the characteristics of LTNP, NP and RP. Five healthy rhesus monkeys Rhesus macaques, comparative analysis of different types of T cell subsets, TCM syndrome index differences to identify the different types of risk factors for progress and the establishment of discriminant equations to predict the risk. 【Results】 The numbers of WBC and LYM before infection entered the discriminant equation. The plateau phase was the level of thyroxine (T4) and the plateau phase Log10RNA entered the discriminant equation. The agreement rate of discriminant function was tested. The total coincidence rate between theoretical discrimination and actual data before and during infection was 57.1% and 91.2% respectively. 【Conclusion】 The WBC count and LYM ratio before infection can be used as a reference to evaluate the different types of progression. The plateau Log10RNA and T4 levels can be used to predict the risk of different types of progression.