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2012年4月沪胶市场呈“L”形态走势,上半月延续了3月的调整格局,继续震荡下行,下半月则小幅回升并横盘整理,沪胶指数月底报收27258元,月度跌幅为1.26%。5月,国内货币政策预期及经济忧虑将逐渐缓和,对市场略微形成利多;天气因素困扰加大,天然橡胶生产国协会(ANRPC)再度下调全年产量预期,对市场形成支撑;国内物价指数(CPI)低位运行有利于消费改善,新能源汽车规划出台,预计汽车销售淡季形势略微改善;天然橡胶价格同比下降幅度较大,轮胎企业成本下降有利于利润提升。国内经济下滑及汽车销售进入淡季对天然橡胶市场的拖累或有所削弱,但欧洲问题再添变数,5月上旬困扰较大,市场波动幅度可能加大,预计5月整体压力略微小于4月,天然橡胶市场重心将略微上移,下方支撑价位依旧为26000元,上方阻力位为28500元。
April 2012 Hujiao market was “L” shape trend, the first half of the continuation of the pattern of adjustment in March to continue the downward shocks, the second half rose slightly and sideways, Hujiao index closed at 27,258 yuan at the end of the month The decrease was 1.26%. In May, the expectation of domestic monetary policy and economic worries will be gradually eased, forming a slight profit to the market. As the weather is troublesome, the annual output forecast of ANRPC will be lowered again, which will support the market. The domestic price index CPI) is conducive to low consumption to improve the operation, the introduction of new energy vehicles plan is expected to slightly improve the off-season car sales situation; natural rubber prices fell more greatly year on year decline in tire business profits conducive to profit. Domestic economic downturn and auto sales entering the off-season have dragged down or weakened the natural rubber market. However, the European problems have become more volatile. In the first ten days of May, there were more troubles and the market volatility may increase. The overall pressure in May is expected to be slightly less than that in April, Natural rubber market will be slightly higher center of gravity, below the support price is still 26,000 yuan, above the resistance of 28,500 yuan.