论文部分内容阅读
有些事情能从冲击中受益,当黑天鹅出现的时候,他们反而能以此为契机,茁壮成长和壮大。“黑天鹅”事件是指造成广泛严重后果的,不可预知的、不定期发生的大规模事件。在纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布的上一部杰作《黑天鹅》中,他打破了我们惯常的世界观:世界总体上是有序的、可解释可预测的。现实世界远比我们记忆中的更错综复杂——我们的头脑倾向于将历史以更平稳更线性的状态呈现出来,这导致我们低估了随机性。而事实上,黑天鹅无所不在,我们总是暴露在波动性、随机性、混乱和压力、风险和不确定之下。听起来似乎让人绝望。纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布的新书《反脆
There are some things that can benefit from the impact, and when the Black Swan appears, they can instead take the chance to thrive and grow. The “Black Swan” incident is an unpredictable and irregular large-scale event that has a wide range of serious consequences. In Noseem Nicholas Taleb’s last masterpiece “Black Swan,” he broke our usual worldview: the world is generally orderly and interpretable and predictable. The real world is far more complicated than we remember - our minds tend to present history in a more stable and linear state, which leads us to underestimate the randomness. In fact, Black Swan is omnipresent, and we are always exposed to volatility, randomness, chaos and stress, risk and uncertainty. It sounds like desperation. Naseem Nicholas Taleb’s new book “Anti-Frize.”