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近年中国非金融企业债务对GDP比急剧上升,引发了学界和业界对中国金融和经济稳定的担忧。本文通过建立描绘企业债对GDP比随时间变化的微分方程,在假定不同经济增长潜力的前提下,动态模拟了非金融企业债对GDP比值变动的几种可能路径,给出未来非金融企业债对GDP比的几组具体数值。结果显示,就中国目前而,提高经济增长速度并不能降低企业债对GDP比值。为避免发生债务危机,中国必须提高资本使用效率,提高企业利润率,并降低企业对债务融资的依赖。
In recent years, the debt-to-GDP ratio of non-financial enterprises in China has risen sharply, triggering concerns of academia and industry over the financial and economic stability of China. By establishing a differential equation describing the ratio of corporate debt to GDP over time, this paper, based on the assumption of different economic growth potentials, dynamically simulates several possible paths for changes in the ratio of non-financial corporate debt to GDP and gives the future non-financial corporate bonds Several groups of specific values of GDP ratio. The result shows that at present, increasing the rate of economic growth in China does not reduce the ratio of corporate bonds to GDP. In order to avoid a debt crisis, China must improve the efficiency of capital utilization, increase the profit margin of enterprises and reduce the dependence of enterprises on debt financing.