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罗布麻为夹竹桃科多年生草本植物,其叶可以入药,茎秆作为重要的纺织品原材料,预测气候变化对该物种分布范围的影响及其保护该资源的可持续利用具有重要意义。该文利用罗布麻的44个地理分布点和19个环境因子图层,采用MaxEnt模型分析了罗布麻在我国的潜在地理分布,并基于该模型预测政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC AR5)发布的BCC_CSM1.1气候模式下2050年及2070年的RCP2.6,RCP8.5气候情景下罗布麻的潜在地理分布范围。结果表明:最冷月低温(bio6)、年平均温(bio1)、最冷季平均降雨量(bio19)、最湿季平均温(bio8)是影响罗布麻分布的主导环境因子;在当前气候条件下,罗布麻的适宜生境占我国总面积的11.94%,集中分布在新疆中部,甘肃北部,内蒙古南部,宁夏北部,陕西北部及中部,山西南部,河南北部及中部,河北中部及南部,山东,天津,辽宁南部及北京的部分区域。由模型预测可知:2050—2070年,RCP2.6,RCP8.5气候情景下,罗布麻适宜生境都有所减少。
Apocynum Apocynaceae perennial herb, its leaves can be medicine, stems as an important textile raw material, predict the impact of climate change on the scope of the species distribution and its conservation of sustainable use of resources is of great significance. In this paper, we use the MaxEnt model to analyze the potential geographical distribution of Apocynum venetum in China using 44 geographical distribution points and 19 environmental factor layers of Apocynum venetum, and predict the potential geographical distribution of Apocynum venetum in our country based on this model. IPCC AR5 BCC_CSM1.1 RCP2.6, RCP8.5 for 2050 and 2070 climate models Potential geographic distribution of Apocynum in climatic scenarios. The results showed that bio6, bio1, bio19 and bio8 were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Apocynum venetum L. In the current climatic conditions The suitable habitat of Apocynum venetum is 11.94% of the total area in China. It is mainly distributed in central Xinjiang, northern Gansu, southern Inner Mongolia, northern Ningxia, northern and central Shaanxi, southern Shanxi, northern and central Henan, central and southern Hebei, Shandong, Tianjin, southern Liaoning and Beijing in some areas. From the model predictions, we can see that: 2050-2070, RCP2.6, RCP8.5 Apocalyptic suitable habitat are reduced.