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[目的]建立麻疹疫情预测灰色模型GM(1,1),探讨其应用于石家庄市麻疹暴发流行预测的可行性。[方法]根据1980～2007年石家庄市麻疹发病率数据建立麻疹暴发流行预测灰色模型GM(1,1),外推预测近两次暴发流行高峰。[结果]石家庄市麻疹暴发流行预测模型为■(1)(k)=18.3585e0.3350(k-1)-15.3585,近期麻疹流行高峰年分别是2018年和2033年。[结论]GM(1,1)模型较好地拟合了石家庄市麻疹暴发流行趋势,其预测结果具有一定的参考价值。
[Objective] The research aimed to establish a gray model GM (1,1) for prediction of measles epidemic situation and discuss its feasibility in forecasting the epidemic of measles outbreak in Shijiazhuang. [Method] Based on the incidence data of measles in Shijiazhuang from 1980 to 2007, a gray model GM (1,1) of epidemic forecasting of measles outbreak was established. The epidemic peak was predicted by extrapolation in the past two years. [Results] The prevalence forecast of measles outbreak in Shijiazhuang City was ■ (1) (k) = 18.3585e0.3350 (k-1) -15.3585. The recent measles epidemic peak year was 2018 and 2033 respectively. [Conclusion] The GM (1,1) model fitted the trend of measles outbreak in Shijiazhuang City well, and its prediction result has some reference value.