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水文时间序列表述的是水文水资源系统在气象环境、流域下垫面以及人类活动等因素综合作用后的输出结果,其变化规律呈现随机性和确定性特点。在大尺度条件下,水文时间序列的传统预报模型简单,且很少考虑环境噪音因素的影响。伴随现代化科学技术的快速进步,国民经济的管理部门提出了更高的水文水资源预报要求,在要求短期预报更精准的基础上,对中长期预报的要求要越来越严格。由于受到相关科技水平的制约和诸多复杂因素的影响,当前的中长期水文水资源预报还处于发展、探究阶段。
The hydrological time series expresses the output of the hydrological and water resources system after the combination of meteorological environment, underlying surface of the river basin and human activities, and its variation shows randomness and certainty. Under large-scale conditions, the traditional prediction model of hydrological time series is simple and seldom considers the influence of environmental noise factors. With the rapid progress of modern science and technology, the management of the national economy has put forward higher requirements for hydrological and water resources forecasts. On the basis of requiring more accurate short-term forecasts, the requirements for long-term and medium-term forecasts have become more and more stringent. Due to the constraints of relevant science and technology and many complicated factors, the current medium and long term hydrological and water resources forecast is still in the development and exploration stage.