粘虫是小麦后期的暴食性害虫,常造成严重减产.摸清粘虫发生量的规律,是生产上急待解决的问题.根据我县11年来粘虫的发生情况,分析了田间幼虫密度与蛾量、水分积分指数的关系,建立了二元线性回归方程式.现分述于后:一、预报因子的挑选及方程的建立影响麦田粘虫发生程度的因素主要有蛾量、雨日、雨量、粘虫天敌、蜜源植物、早春温度等,尤其是蛾量、雨日和雨量对发生量影响较大.因蛾量是虫源基础,一头雌蛾 Mythimna separata is the late-stage glutinous pest of wheat, which often results in serious decrease of yield. To find out the regularity of occurrence of armyworm is an urgent problem in production. According to the occurrence of Mythimna separata in our county for 11 years, Moth amount, water integral index, established binary linear regression equation is now described later: First, the selection of predictor and the establishment of equations affect the occurrence of wheat armyworm the main factors include the amount of moths, rain days, rainfall , Armyworm natural enemies, nectar plants, early spring temperatures, especially moth, rain days and rainfall have a greater impact on the occurrence of the amount of moth is based on the source of insects, a female moth