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结合灰色系统在岩溶地下水方面的研究进展,从实际应用的角度出发,通过逐步求精的方法,使用Visual C++6.0编程,开发出一套能够满足水文地质工作者使用且操作方便的岩溶地下水灰色系统分析软件。该软件分别由灰色关联分析、数据预处理、GM(1,1)模型、等维递补预测、残差周期模型和GM(1,N)预测模型6个模块组成,具有操作简单便捷、计算结果精确、出错信息处理完善、预测结果直观、数据输入输出方式灵活、残差结果曲线输出及可推广性强等优点。利用该软件对山西柳林泉2008和2009年的泉水流量进行预测检验,GM(1,1)模型的残差周期修正预测精度明显提高,2008年的预测误差由0.32m3/s下降到0.17m3/s,2009年的预测误差由0.29m3/s下降低到0.19m3/s。
Combined with the research progress of gray system in karst groundwater, from a practical application point of view, we developed a set of karst groundwater which can meet the needs of hydrogeological workers and is convenient to operate by using the method of step by step refinement and using Visual C ++ 6.0 programming. Gray system analysis software. The software consists of six modules, namely gray incidence analysis, data preprocessing, GM (1,1) model, equal dimensionality prediction, residual period model and GM (1, N) prediction model. Accurate and error-prone information processing, intuitive prediction results, flexible data input and output, output of the residual result curve, and good generalization. The software was used to predict the spring flow of Liulin Spring in Shanxi Province in 2008 and 2009. The prediction accuracy of the residual error correction of GM (1,1) model was significantly improved. The forecast error of 2008 decreased from 0.32m3 / s to 0.17m3 / s, the prediction error in 2009 decreased from 0.29m3 / s to 0.19m3 / s.