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本研究基于1997—2010年世界范围内124个国家的跨国面板数据,应用固定效应模型,证明了人均收入水平、女性的社会地位对总和生育率(TFR)的重要作用。估计结果显示,人均收入水平与TFR的变化呈现反J型曲线的关系,支持了Myrskyl等的结论。中小学女生与男生入学率之比和国会中女性席位比例对TFR有显著负向影响,在控制了前者之后,后者的显著性得到了提高。这表明女性社会地位的提高将会降低生育率;当社会分化程度较低时,精英女性的行为才会对整体的生育率有较高的解释力。在发展中国家,女性社会地位的因素对生育水平下降具有特别重要的作用。
Based on the cross-country panel data of 124 countries in the world from 1997 to 2010, this study applies the fixed-effects model to prove the important role of per capita income level and women’s social status in TFR. The estimation results show that the per capita income level shows the relationship of anti-J curve with the change of TFR, and supports the conclusion of Myrskyl et al. The ratio of girls ’to boys’ enrollment in primary and secondary schools and the proportion of women seats in parliament have a significant negative impact on TFR. After controlling the former, the latter’s significance has been raised. This shows that the increase of women’s social status will reduce the fertility rate; when the degree of social differentiation is low, the elite women’s behavior will have a higher explanation of the overall fertility rate. In developing countries, the factors that affect women’s social status are particularly important for the declining birthrate.