本文根据N个分系统各自获得的瞬间数据进行系统有效性A的贝叶斯分析。使用自然共轭的验前概率密度函数,应用贝叶斯公式得到分系统有效性的验后概率密度函数。系统有效性的验后概率密度函数的确定需要推导N个独立随机变量之积的概率密度函数,这由应用梅林积分变抉来完成。由A的验后概率密度函数的知识,就可得到系统有效性的置信限。 In this paper, Bayesian analysis of system effectiveness A is performed based on the instantaneous data obtained by each of the N subsystems. Using the natural conjugate pre-test probability density function, the posterior probability density function of subsystems validity is obtained by Bayesian formula. Determining the posterior probability density function of the system validity requires the derivation of the probability density function of the product of N independent random variables, which is accomplished by applying Merlin integration. From the knowledge of the posterior probability density function of A, we can get the confidence limit of the validity of the system.