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在西方市场中周期型股票的价格演变与投资理念基本领先于经济或行业周期一个或半个周期,而从2003年国内股市的发展轨迹来看,周期型股票的价格演变与投资预期基本与经济或行业周期的步伐保持一致,甚至落后于经济或行业半个周期。因此2003年股市的热点主要是“白马奔腾”,虽然2004年国内经济成长可能仍处在一个快速通道中,不过一些周期型行业的过度投资造成的产能过剩,加上市场竞争的日益剧烈,使投资这些周期型股票的风险也逐渐显现。
In the western market, the price evolution and investment concept of cyclical stocks basically lead one or a half cycle of the economic or industrial cycle. From the development track of the domestic stock market in 2003, the price evolution and investment expectation of cyclical stocks are both basic and economic Or the pace of the industry cycle, or even lagged behind the economic or industry half a cycle. Therefore, the hot spot in the stock market in 2003 was mainly “white and galloping.” Although the domestic economic growth in 2004 may still be in a fast track, overcapacity caused by over-investment in some cyclical industries and the increasingly fierce market competition have made The risk of investing in these cyclical stocks is also gradually emerging.