论文部分内容阅读
基于Cressey(1953)的舞弊风险理论,本文归纳出与公司违规可能有关的压力、机会以及理性变量,以2000-2008年间被证监会查处的220家(430次)A股违规上市公司以及相应的配对样本为研究对象,通过单变量分析和条件Logistic回归分析建立了违规判别模型。得出的结论主要有:压力变量方面,财务稳定性比率、总资产增长率、资产负债率高的公司易发生违规;自由现金流、总资产周转率、国有股比重、ROA高的公司不易发生违规。机会变量方面,董事会会议频繁、董事长和CEO两职合一的公司易发生违规。理性变量方面,被出具标准审计意见类型、应计利润率高的公司不易发生违规,审计事务所变更的公司易发生违规。在建模样本和检验样本中,模型的准确率分别为81.06%和80.62%。
Based on the theory of fraud risk of Cressey (1953), this article summarizes the possible pressures, opportunities and rational variables related to the Company’s violation. Based on the investigation of 220 (430) A-share listed companies that were investigated by the CSRC during 2000-2008 and the corresponding Paired samples for the study, through univariate analysis and conditional Logistic regression analysis established a discriminant model. The main conclusions drawn are: the pressure variables, the financial stability ratio, the growth rate of total assets, high debt-liability ratio of companies prone to violations; free cash flow, the total asset turnover, the proportion of state-owned shares, ROA high companies are not prone to violations . Opportunity variables, the board meetings frequently, the chairman and CEO of one company prone to violations. Rational variables, the standard audit opinion is issued, the accrued profit margin of the company is not prone to violations, the audit firm changes prone to irregularities. The accuracy of the model was 81.06% and 80.62% respectively in the model samples and the test samples.