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码头设计的经济分析对于评价不同方案,以便最终决策有着极其重要的意义。本文重点分析研究了待时系统的数学模型。这个问题在技术——经济分析中较难处理。早在50年代初kendall首先提出过一个排队论的模型。但并没有解决如何估计模型中含有的参数,因此kendall的理论模型不能实际应用。本文应用统计分析的方法对此问题进行了研究。推导了估计待时系统分布和方差的方法。使kendall模型在港口工程设计时进行定量的技术经济分析中得以实际应用;同时也为选择优化方案的最终决策提供了可靠依据。
Economic analysis of terminal design is of great importance for the evaluation of different options so that the final decision can be made. This article focuses on analyzing and studying the mathematical model of time-waiting system. This problem is more difficult to handle in the technical-economic analysis. As early as the early 1950s, kendall first proposed a queuing theory model. But did not solve how to estimate the model contains the parameters, so kendall’s theoretical model can not be applied. This article uses the method of statistical analysis to study this problem. The method of estimating the distribution and variance of waiting system is derived. So that the kendall model can be put into practical application in the technical and economic analysis of the quantitative design of port engineering. It also provides a reliable basis for the final decision-making of the optimal scheme selection.