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运用连续小波对新疆天山北坡的乌鲁木齐河上游1958-2006年的月均气温(MMT)、月降水量(MP)和月均径流量(MMR)变化进行了多时间尺度特征分析.结果表明:1960—2005年月均气温、月降水量和月均径流量三者始终存在着12个月左右尺度的主周期,并呈现出全局性特征,信号的强弱依次为MMT、MP和MMR;同时,MMT存在66个月和96个月的次周期,MP存在6个月、30个月和72个月的次周期,MMR亦存在6个月、24个月、36个月和72个月的次周期.在此基础上,对其进行交叉小波分析后发现,MMR与MMT、MP的相关程度除了表现为12个月的主周期和6个月的次周期外,MMT对MMR的影响还表现在34个月和72个月的次周期上,而MP对MMR的影响也表现在24个月、36个月和72个月的次周期上.MMT对MMR的影响除了12个月的主周期表现为正相关外,6个月的周期相位亦存在正负交错的现象,说明在该尺度上MMT对MMR的影响既有正面的也有负面的;MMT对MMR的影响在其他次周期上均表现为负相关或近似负相关;而MP对MMR的影响在主次周期上均表现为显著的正相关.
The multi-time scale feature analysis of monthly average temperature (MMT), monthly precipitation (MP) and monthly mean runoff (MMR) of the upper reaches of the Urumqi River from the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region was carried out by using continuous wavelet.The results showed that: The monthly mean monthly temperature, monthly precipitation and monthly average runoff from 1960 to 2005 always existed the main period of about 12 months and showed the global characteristics with the order of MMT, MP and MMR; , MMT has sub-cycles of 66 months and 96 months, MP has sub-cycles of 6 months, 30 months and 72 months, MMR also exists for 6 months, 24 months, 36 months and 72 months On the basis of this, we found that the correlation between MMR and MMT and MP is cross-wavelet analysis, except for the main period of 12 months and the sub-period of 6 months, the influence of MMT on MMR The impact of MP on MMR was also observed in the 24-month, 36-month and 72-month sub-cycles at 34 and 72-month sub-cycles.MMMT’s effect on MMR Except for the 12-month main cycle Showing a positive correlation, the 6-month period phase also exists the phenomenon of staggered positive and negative, indicating that MMT on the scale of the impact of MMR both positive There are negative; the impact of MMT MMR at other times for the period showed a negative correlation or negative correlation approximation; the impact of the MMR MP in the primary and secondary cycle showed as a significant positive correlation.