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总结了对 1 996年 2月 3日云南丽江 7级地震的中短期监视及跟踪预报过程 .根据川滇地区地震活动特征和可公度性计算结果 ,在该次地震前对地震大形势进行了预测 .1 995年 1 0月以后 ,滇西北地区出现了大面积、大幅度、多手段的同步异常 ,其中以水氡、水位和CO2 异常为主 ,沿中甸─南涧地震区分布较为集中 .根据上述异常特征及异常分布情况 ,作者在该次地震前 2个月向大理州政府提出了书面预报意见 ,认为 1 996年 2月底以前在中甸─丽江─剑川─华坪一带有可能发生 5～ 6级地震 .
Summarizes the short and medium term monitoring and tracking of the Lijiang M7.7 Yunnan Earthquake on February 3, 1996. According to the seismic activity characteristics and commensurability calculation results in Sichuan-Yunnan region, the great earthquake situation was carried out before the earthquake Prediction.1 After January 1095, synoptic anomalies of large area, large amplitude and multiple means occurred in northwestern Yunnan, with the main anomalies of water radon, water level and CO2, and the distribution along the Zhongdian-Nanjian earthquake area was more concentrated Based on the above anomalies and the anomaly distribution, the author submitted a written forecast to the government of Dali Prefecture two months prior to the earthquake that there is a possibility that it will take place in Zhongdian-Lijiang-Jianchuan-Huaping area before the end of February 1996 5 to 6 earthquakes occurred.