论文部分内容阅读
应用事件树方法确定了汽车缺陷风险传递路径,将缺陷风险转化为失效风险进行等效研究.根据汽车缺陷风险特点,建立了风险评估SPN模型,并以三维矩阵图描述汽车缺陷风险;针对汽车的不合理风险及汽车缺陷数据离散和波动的状态,提出了基于灰色理论的风险预测方法;以失效预测数据作为风险评估的风险概率预测基础,建立汽车缺陷的失效预测模型,采用残差辨识法检验模型精度.研究结果表明:在掌握实际的汽车售后零部件故障数据情况下,模型对汽车缺陷风险概率预测具有较好的适用性.
Event tree method was used to determine the path of vehicle defect risk transfer, and the defect risk was transformed into failure risk for equivalent study.According to the characteristics of vehicle defect risk, a risk assessment SPN model was established and the three-dimensional matrix diagram was used to describe the vehicle defect risk. The paper puts forward the risk forecasting method based on gray theory. Using the failure forecasting data as the risk probability forecasting basis of risk assessment, this paper establishes the failure prediction model of automobile defects, and uses the residual error test Model precision.The results show that the model has good applicability to the prediction of the probability of automobile defects risk under the condition of grasping the actual failure data of automobile after-sales components.