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近几年来,我国各地住宅商品房基本上都处于供大于求的局面.售房市场的有效需求不足.因此,短期来看,投资于商品房市场并不看好.但从长期来看,有理由认为我国住房市场的需求将会保持稳中见涨的趋势.影响住房长期需求的因素主要包括:人口数量的变动及人口的年龄结构、收入水平的变动以及需求收入弹性的大小等因素.我国市镇人口存量庞大,且从增量上来看,虽然全国人口的总量增长受到较为严格的控制,但由于工业化进程中农村人口不断向城市的迁移,使我国城乡人口结构一直在发生变化,自1978年以来.市镇人口占总人口的比重不断上升,平均每两年左右就升1个百分点.目前已接近30%的水平.市镇人口比重的增加必将导致原有城市人口数量的增加或新兴城市的出现,两者都会引致出对住房的需求.
In recent years, residential real estate across the country is basically in oversupply situation, and the effective demand for the housing market is not enough, so in the short term, it is not optimistic about the investment in the real estate market, but in the long run, it is reasonable to assume that our country Housing market demand will maintain the trend of rising steadily.The factors affecting the long-term housing demand include: population changes and the age structure of the population, the level of income changes and the size of the income elasticity of demand and other factors.China’s urban population In terms of increment, although the total population growth of the country is subject to more stringent control, the rural-urban population structure in China has been changing due to the continuous migration of rural population to cities in the process of industrialization. Since 1978, . The proportion of urban population in the total population is on the rise, rising by an average of 1 percentage point every two years or so, and is now approaching 30%. An increase in the proportion of urban population will inevitably lead to an increase in the population of urban areas or emerging cities The emergence of both will lead to the demand for housing.