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2016年中央经济工作会议指出要注重供给侧改革,主抓“去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板”五大任务,可见从供给端做减法已成为化解产能过剩的主要手段。本文基于陕西省渭南市煤炭行业数据和去产能实际情况,采用VAR模型分析了去产能对渭南市当地经济发展、社会就业及政府财税收入的影响,得出去产能在短期内会抑制经济增长,引起就业的短期波动,但长期却有利于经济增长和就业的稳定;同时去产能会抑制财政收入增长,增加财政支出负担。基于以上分析,本文建议采取结构性去产能政策,通过优化产业结构,发展精准就业援助,调整税收政策等措施解决去产能带来的经济、就业及财政问题。
In 2016, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to focus on the five major tasks of supply-side reform, focusing on the tasks of “going to production, removing inventory, deleveraging, lowering costs and making up for shortcomings.” Therefore, subtraction from the supply side has become the major factor in overcapacity means. Based on the data of coal industry in Weinan City of Shaanxi Province and the actual situation of the capacity to go production, this paper analyzes the impact of going production on the local economic development, social employment and government revenue in Weinan by VAR model, concludes that going to the production capacity will restrain the economic growth in the short term, Short-term fluctuations in employment, but long-term economic growth and employment is conducive to stability; the same time to capacity will inhibit the growth of fiscal revenue and increase the financial expenditure burden. Based on the above analysis, this paper proposes to adopt a structural de-commissioning policy to solve the economic, employment and financial problems caused by de-capacity by optimizing industrial structure, developing accurate employment assistance and adjusting tax policies.