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文章采用1952～2009年对外贸易时间序列数据并运用渐进回归、卡尔曼滤波和门限回归考察了对外贸易对就业水平的影响。研究表明,在不考虑进口的情况下,出口规模的增加对就业产生正向波动的冲击,而考虑进口后,外贸顺差的就业效应却存在倒U型曲线特征,外贸即顺差规模高于约14000亿元时,就业水平反而开始降低,此时“贸易筛选”机制将在劳动力市场上起主要作用。
The article uses the time series data of foreign trade from 1952 to 2009 and uses gradual regression, Kalman filter and threshold regression to examine the impact of foreign trade on employment level. The study shows that without considering the import situation, the increase of export scale has a positive impact on employment. However, after considering import, the employment effect of foreign trade surplus has the characteristics of inverted U-shaped curve. The scale of trade surplus is higher than about 14000 In the meantime, the employment level will start to decrease. At this moment, the “trade screening” mechanism will play a major role in the labor market.