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基于2007—2014年江苏省各地区的经济与水污染数据,运用全局Moran’s I指数、LMDI指数及LISA聚集图,将水污染的经济驱动因素分解为规模效应、结构效应、科技消费效应及技术污染效应,探究江苏省水污染的时空变动特征。结果表明,GDP与水污染总量在空间上呈正相关关系,2007—2014年相关性先增后减。在时间维度上,规模效应及科技消费效应的变化增加了江苏省各地区的水污染效应,结构效应及技术污染效应的变化则减少了水污染效应;在空间维度上,规模效应及科技消费效应存在低值聚集效应,结构效应不存在显著的空间聚集效应,技术污染效应存在高值聚集效应及高低值聚集效应;江苏省水污染重心为119.6395°E—119.6892°E,32.1038°N—32.2075°N的区域,水污染重心自南向北转移,在东西方向上选择性移动。
Based on the economic and water pollution data of all regions in Jiangsu Province in 2007-2014, the global Moran’s I index, LMDI index and LISA aggregation map were used to decompose the economic drivers of water pollution into economies of scale, structural effects, technological and consumer effects, and technical pollution Effect, explore the temporal and spatial variation of water pollution in Jiangsu Province. The results show that there is a positive correlation between GDP and the total amount of water pollution in space, and the correlation increases first and then decreases from 2007 to 2014. In the time dimension, the change of scale effect and consumption effect of science and technology increase the water pollution effect in all regions of Jiangsu Province. The structural effect and the change of technical pollution effect reduce the water pollution effect. In the spatial dimension, the scale effect and the technology consumption effect There is a low value of aggregation effect, there is no significant spatial agglomeration effect of structure effect, there is a high value clustering effect and high and low value agglomeration effect of technical pollution effect; the center of gravity of water pollution in Jiangsu Province is 119.6395 ° E-119.6892 ° E, 32.1038 ° N-32.2075 ° In the area of N, the center of water pollution shifts from south to north and selectively moves in the east-west direction.