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本文针对绿色增长策略实施绩效的评价问题,引入系统动力学构建绿色增长策略动力学模型。以绿色增长策略力度为主要控制变量,以绿色福祉指数为绿色增长策略实施绩效的评价变量,搭建绿色增长策略评价及模拟平台,探讨政府绿色增长策略力度与实施绩效间的动态作用机制。研究发现:我国实际绿色增长策略力度为0.17,最佳绿色增长策略力度为0.55,绿色增长策略实施力度缺口达到69%,表明绿色增长策略在国家战略制定中的重要性较弱。同时,本文对消费指数、环境服务指数及绿色福祉指数的实际演化曲线与动态最优演化曲线进行比较研究。在最佳绿色增长策略背景下,环境服务指数的增长是绿色福祉指数增长的主要拉动力;消费指数与绿色福祉指数的演化曲线始终保持一致,表征了绿色增长策略应始终以提升人民生活质量,优化人们生活生产环境为主旨。同时,三个指数的演化曲线最终呈现出逐渐收敛的态势,表明最佳绿色增长策略最终目标是生态环境状况、人民生活水平及绿色福祉水平实现协同优化、和谐发展。
In this paper, the green growth strategy implementation performance evaluation issues, the introduction of system dynamics to build green growth strategy dynamics model. Taking the intensity of green growth strategy as the main control variable and the green welfare index as the evaluation variable of implementing the green growth strategy, we set up a green growth strategy evaluation and simulation platform to explore the dynamic mechanism between the government green growth strategy and implementation performance. The results show that the actual green growth strategy in China is 0.17, the best green growth strategy is 0.55, and the green growth strategy implementation gap reaches 69%, which shows that the green growth strategy is of less importance in the national strategy formulation. At the same time, the paper compares the actual evolution curve and dynamic evolution curve of consumer index, environmental service index and green welfare index. In the context of the best green growth strategy, the growth of the environmental service index is the main driving force for the growth of the green index of well-being. The evolution of the consumer index and the green index of well-being has always been consistent, indicating that green growth strategies should always improve people’s quality of life, Optimize people’s living environment is the main theme. At the same time, the evolution curves of the three indices finally showed a gradual convergence trend, indicating that the ultimate goal of the best green growth strategy is the ecological environment conditions, the people’s living standard and the green welfare level to achieve coordinated and harmonious development.