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本文尝试利用中国海关进出口数据库、CEPII-BACI数据库等产品层面的大型微观数据,基于进口商品种类增加的视角,测算中国进口贸易的福利效应。研究结果发现:进口商品种类多样化、进口地区结构多元化也是贸易利益的源泉;中间品、消费品、低技术商品、高技术商品的进口都有利于消费者福利水平的提升;如果考虑人民币汇率的实际变化,中国由于进口商品种类增加所获得的消费者福利会小幅上升;在不考虑人民币实际汇率和实际有效汇率变化的情况下,基于HS-6商品层面数据,中国消费者每年可以从进口商品种类增长中获得相当于1998年GDP的0.40%的福利增加,基于HS-8商品层面数据,中国消费者每年可以从进口商品种类增长中获得相当于2000年GDP的0.42%的福利增加,即中国每年可以从进口商品种类增长中获得338亿—417亿元的福利增加。因此,今后在制定进口战略时,我国政府不仅要重视进口规模本身的变化、进口商品技术含量的变化,还要高度重视进口商品种类的多样化、进口地区结构的多元化。
This paper attempts to make use of the large-scale micro-data at the product level of China Customs Import and Export Database and CEPII-BACI Database to estimate the welfare effect of China’s import trade based on the increased perspective of imported goods. The results show that diversification of imported products and diversification of import regions are also sources of trade interests. Imports of intermediate goods, consumer goods, low-tech goods and high-tech goods are all conducive to the improvement of consumer welfare. If we consider the exchange rate of RMB As a result of actual changes, the welfare of consumers in China due to the increase in the number of imported products will rise slightly. Without considering the real exchange rate of RMB and real effective exchange rate changes, based on the HS-6 commodity level data, Chinese consumers can import goods annually from imports Based on the HS-8 commodity-level data, Chinese consumers have been able to obtain a 0.42% increase in welfare from the growth of imported commodities each year, corresponding to an increase of 0.40% in 1998. That is, China An increase of 33.8 billion to 41.7 billion yuan in benefits each year from the growth of imported products can be obtained. Therefore, in the future when formulating the import strategy, our government should not only pay attention to the changes of the import scale itself and the technological content of the imported goods, but also attach great importance to the diversification of the types of imported goods and the diversification of the import regional structure.