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为量化分析经济政策不确定性对我国宏观经济波动的影响,本文在一个基于标准宏观经济理论的SVAR模型中,构建了一种由常规符号约束条件和特定零约束条件相结合的混合识别法,以同时识别出政策不确定性冲击和需求冲击、供给冲击、货币政策冲击等三种传统结构冲击。研究发现:(1)经济政策不确定性冲击并不是中国经济波动的主要因素,但它表现出类似于负向需求冲击的特征,且呈现通胀效应强于产出效应的中国特色;(2)样本期内,需求冲击是驱动中国经济波动的首要因素,供给冲击次之;(3)供给冲击是引致价格水平上涨的主要原因,货币冲击起到“推波助澜”的作用,而政策不确定性冲击则抑制了价格水平的进一步上升。本文研究为有关经济政策不确定性的宏观经济效应讨论提供了来自最大发展中国家的经验证据,也为“宏观经济政策要稳”的政策基调提供了支持。
In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the macroeconomic fluctuations in China, this paper constructs a hybrid identification method based on the standard macroeconomic theory in a SVAR model, which consists of a combination of conventional symbolic constraints and zero-specific constraints. In the meantime, three traditional structures such as policy uncertainty shocks and demand shocks, supply shocks and monetary policy shocks were identified. The findings are as follows: (1) Uncertainty impact of economic policy is not the main factor of China’s economic fluctuation, but it shows the characteristics similar to the impact of negative demand and presents the Chinese characteristics that the inflation effect is stronger than the output effect. (2) During the sample period, the impact of demand shocks is the primary factor that drives China’s economic volatility, followed by the supply shocks. (3) Supply shocks are the main reason causing the price level to rise. The monetary shock plays a role of “fueling waves.” However, the policy uncertainty Sex shocks have inhibited further price increases. This study provides empirical evidence from the largest developing countries for discussion of macroeconomic effects on the uncertainty of economic policies and also supports the policy tone of “stabilizing macroeconomic policies.”