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通过实测119例口服氨茶碱病人稳态后2、4、6、8h血药浓度，并与预测浓度及Bayesian法预估浓度对比，评价文献报道的氨茶碱血药浓度及个体给药方案预测系统（ACWS）的准确性和可靠性。结果各时间预测浓度与实测浓度相关系数为0.9660～0.9987；误差范围：2h在0.01～3．29μg／ml，6h在0．01～1．89μg／ml，8h在0．02～1.98μg／ml。6例支气管哮喘病人ACWS预测浓度比Bayesian法预估浓度误差均值小。
The plasma concentration of aminophylline in 119 patients after oral administration was measured at 2, 4, 6, and 8 h after the steady state, and compared with the predicted concentration and the predicted concentration by Bayesian method, the reported aminophylline plasma concentration and individual dosing regimen Predictive system (ACWS) accuracy and reliability. Results The correlation coefficient between predicted concentration and measured concentration at each time was 0.9660 ~ 0.9987. The error range was 0.01 ~ 3.29μg / ml at 2h, 0.01 ~ 1.89μg / ml at 6h and 0.02 ~ 1.98μg / ml at 8h . The predicted concentrations of ACWS in 6 patients with bronchial asthma were lower than those estimated by Bayesian method.