作物产量预测的准确度,直接关系到领导的决策思维和导向的正确与否。最近,我们对四川省大部分地方农业信息部门近年的产量预测情况进行了归类分析和一些研究,发现不少地方因标准不统一、方法不当等原因致使预测结果不甚准确,甚至与实际相差甚远。因此,如何实现产量预测的标准化、规范化、统一化和客观化,已成为农业信息工作亟需研究解决的问题。根据多年的生产实践检验,这里特提出三种作物产量规范预测的方法,与同道商榷。一、随机加权预测法。即通过层层随机的方法,选取若干个样点抽样测产预测。因各样点(或测产单位)面积不同,最终产量不能是简单的平均,而必须 The accuracy of crop yield forecast is directly related to the leadership’s decision-making thinking and guidance is correct or not. Recently, we conducted a classification analysis and some researches on the output forecast of most local agricultural information departments in Sichuan Province in recent years and found that in many places, the forecast results were not accurate or even different from the actual ones due to the inconsistent standards and improper methods Far away. Therefore, how to standardize, standardize, unify and objectify the output forecasting has become a problem that agricultural information work urgently needs to be studied and solved. According to many years of production practice test, here are three special crop yield prediction method, with the same argument. First, the random weighted prediction method. That is through a random layer of methods, select a number of sample sampling forecast. Due to the different points (or measuring unit) area, the final output can not be a simple average, but must