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目的 对上海市区居民 １９７２～１９９４ 年肿瘤发病率进行统计、分析，了解其变化趋势。方法 病例皆按照国际疾病分类（ Ｉ Ｃ Ｄ９）三位数字进行编码。根据有关年份人口普查资料中的性别、年龄构成用内插法和外推法估算各年的年龄组平均人口数。用世界标准人口计算标化率、发病率每年变化百分比。用病例数加权计算，对数直线回归法计算。结果 １９７２ ～１９９４ 年 间， 男性所 有部 位肿瘤 标化发 病率 从２５００／１０ 万 降至 ２１６５／１０ 万， 女性从 １７５３／１０ 万降 至１５５２／１０ 万。男女性结肠、胆囊癌上升了 １００％ 。脑、肾、胰腺、前列腺、子宫内膜、女性乳腺、卵巢癌、非霍奇金氏淋巴瘤迅速上升。肺和直肠癌上升较小。食管和子宫颈癌下降一半以上，胃和肝癌有较多下降。结论 上述发病趋势变化，提示除了肿瘤诊断和报告情况的改善外，居民生活方式和其它环境暴露变化起着重要作用。需深入流行病学研究，明确危险因素，提出预防方法。
Objective To analyze and analyze the incidence of tumors in Shanghai residents from 1972 to 1994. Methods All cases were coded in accordance with the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) three digits. The average population of the age groups in each year was estimated by interpolation and extrapolation based on the gender and age components of the population census data for the relevant year. Use the world standard population to calculate the percentage of annualized rates of change in standardized rates and incidence. Weighted with the number of cases, log-linear regression calculations. Results Between 1972 and 1994, the standardized prevalence rate of all tumors in men decreased from 2500/100 000 to 2165/100 000, and women decreased from 1753/100 000 to 1552/10. Male and female colon and gallbladder cancer rose by 100%. Brain, kidney, pancreas, prostate, endometrial, female breast, ovarian cancer, and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma rise rapidly. Lung and rectal cancer rise less. The number of esophageal and cervical cancers decreased by more than half, and there was a greater decrease in gastric and liver cancers. Conclusions The above changes in incidence trends suggest that in addition to the improvement in the diagnosis and reporting of cancer, the lifestyle of residents and other environmental exposures play an important role. Need to go into epidemiological studies, identify risk factors, and propose preventive methods.