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以内蒙古制造业能源消费为研究对象,首先利用2001～2009年内蒙古制造业能源消费数据,采用时间序列模型和灰色预测模型分别建立了内蒙古制造业能源消费的单项预测模型,并对各单项预测模型的优缺点进行了比较分析;然后采用标准差法进行权重分配,建立了内蒙古制造业能源消费的组合预测模型;最后,运用组合预测模型对内蒙古“十二五”期间的制造业能源消费量进行了预测。结果表明,组合预测模型的预测精度高于任一个单一预测模型,该模型可作为内蒙古未来制造业能源消费量预测的有效工具。
Taking the manufacturing energy consumption of Inner Mongolia as the research object, this paper first uses the energy consumption data of manufacturing industry in Inner Mongolia from 2001 to 2009, and uses the time series model and the gray forecasting model to establish a single forecast model of energy consumption in manufacturing industry in Inner Mongolia. Then the standard deviation method is used to carry out the weight distribution and the combined forecasting model of energy consumption in manufacturing industry in Inner Mongolia is set up. Finally, the combinational forecasting model is used to analyze the energy consumption of manufacturing industry in Inner Mongolia during the “12th Five-Year Plan” The amount has been predicted. The results show that the prediction accuracy of combined forecasting model is higher than that of any single forecasting model, which can be used as an effective tool for forecasting the energy consumption of manufacturing industry in Inner Mongolia in the future.