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作者应用相关分析、多元回归和逐步回归等方法,统计分析了1959年以来黑龙江省八五四农场设置的病圃所积累的23年的田间赤霉病病情资料与各种气象因子的关系。明确了当地小麦赤霉病流行强度变化主要受小麦抽穗扬花期的平均相对湿度、降雨日数、日照时数3项气象因子所左右。据此建立了小麦赤霉病流行预测模型,模型的回检及实测检验结果表明,该模型较准确地反映了当地小麦赤霉病的流行规律,可用于赤霉病流行强度的预测。
Using correlation analysis, multiple regression and stepwise regression, the authors statistically analyzed the relationship between the 23-year field-acquired scab and accumulated various meteorological factors accumulated in the nurseries set up by the 854 farms in Heilongjiang Province since 1959. It is clear that the change of epidemic intensity of local wheat head blight is mainly influenced by three relative meteorological factors such as the average relative humidity during heading and flowering of wheat, rainfall days and sunshine hours. Based on this, the epidemic prediction model of wheat scab was established. The model test and field test showed that the model accurately reflected the prevalence of wheat scab and could be used to predict the prevalence of wheat scab.