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叶尔羌河是塔里木河最长的源流,论文针对叶尔羌河1957-2010年的年径流量监测数据资料,采用Mann-Kendall法和叠加趋势预测模型等方法,结果显示:(1)近54年来,叶尔羌河最大径流量和最小径流量分别出现在1989年和1994年,在1997-2006年径流量最高值达70.87×108m3,比多年平均径流量多4.66×108m3,这时段也是全研究阶段最高值。变差系数为0.17;(2)叶尔羌河年径流量呈现不明显的递增趋势,未来将持续增加,径流量以0.16×108m3/10a速度增加,且具有明显的周期变化;卡群水文站年径流量发生突变年份为1995年,从这一年后径流呈明显的增多趋势;(3)周期分析表明,卡群水文站表现为5a的主周期,叠加趋势模型预测结果显示,卡群水文站2022年将会出现一次丰水年,高于历年平均径流量的37.56%。
The Yarkant River is the longest source of the Tarim River. According to the annual runoff monitoring data of Yarkant River from 1957 to 2010, the Mann-Kendall method and the superimposed trend prediction model are used in the study. The results show that: (1) In the past 54 years, The flow rate and the minimum runoff occurred in 1989 and 1994, respectively. The highest runoff reached 70.87 × 108 m3 in 1997-2006, which was 4.66 × 108 m3 more than the average annual runoff. This time period is also the highest in the whole research stage. The variation coefficient is 0.17; (2) The annual runoff of the Yarkant River shows a non-obvious increasing trend in the future, and will continue to increase in the future. The runoff will increase at a speed of 0.16 × 108m3 / 10a with obvious periodic variation. (3) The periodic analysis shows that the Qarase hydrological station is the main period of 5a, and the superimposed trend model predicts that the Qudan Hydrological Station in 2022 There will be a wet year, higher than the average annual runoff of 37.56%.