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目的探讨天津市南开区大气二氧化硫(SO_2)对人群每日死亡和早死寿命损失年(YLL)的影响。方法收集天津市南开区2001—2010年的大气SO_2监测数据、气象监测数据以及每日死亡监测数据,并计算每日YLL值,采用广义相加模型,评估大气SO_2对人群每日死亡和YLL的影响。结果 2001—2010年,天津市南开区大气SO_2的平均浓度为71.1μg/m3,年均浓度水平呈现下降趋势(t=-5.86,P<0.001);大气SO_2日均浓度年均超标率为10.90%,年均超标率也呈下降趋势(t=-4.23,P<0.01)。大气SO_2浓度每升高10μg/m3,对每日非意外死亡和每日循环系统死亡的影响差异有统计学意义,其效应最大值分别出现在Lag01和Lag0,超额危险度分别为0.41%(95%CI:0.15%,0.66%)和0.33%(95%CI:0.03%,0.62%);对每日非意外死亡YLL和每日循环系统死亡YLL的影响差异也具有统计学意义,其效应最大值均出现在Lag0,效应值分别为1.48(95%CI:0.65,2.30)人年和0.64(95%CI:0.10,1.18)人年;对每日呼吸系统死亡和YLL的影响差异无统计学意义。结论大气SO_2暴露可导致人群每日死亡和YLL的增加,尤其对非意外死亡和循环系统死亡的影响更为明显。
Objective To investigate the effects of SO_2 in the Nankai District of Tianjin on the daily death and the lifespan loss of premature death (YLL). Methods Atmospheric SO_2 monitoring data, meteorological monitoring data and daily death monitoring data were collected from 2001 to 2010 in Nankai District of Tianjin Municipality, and daily YLL values were calculated. The generalized additive model was used to evaluate the effect of atmospheric SO_2 on daily death of people and YLL influences. Results From 2001 to 2010, the average concentration of SO 2 in the atmosphere of Nankai District in Tianjin was 71.1 μg / m3, the annual average concentration showed a downward trend (t = -5.86, P <0.001); the annual average concentration of SO 2 in the atmosphere was 10.90 %, The average annual rate of over-standard also showed a downward trend (t = -4.23, P <0.01). For each 10 μg / m3 increase of atmospheric SO 2 concentration, the effect on daily non-accidental death and daily circulatory death was statistically significant, with the maximum effect occurring at Lag01 and Lag0 respectively, and the excess risk was 0.41% (95 % CI: 0.15%, 0.66%) and 0.33% (95% CI: 0.03%, 0.62%). The effects of daily non-accidental death YLL and daily circulatory death YLL were also statistically significant Values were found at Lag0, with effect values of 1.48 (95% CI: 0.65, 2.30) and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.10, 1.18), respectively; no effect on daily respiratory death and YLL significance. Conclusion Exposure to atmospheric SO 2 can lead to daily death and YLL increase in the population, especially for non-accidental death and circulatory death.