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美国次贷危机引发了席卷全球的金融危机,长期的低利率货币政策和赤字财政政策是引发美国次贷危机的主要原因。贸易保护和美元贬值将是美国未来减少贸易赤字和刺激经济复苏的重要政策取向,在所谓世界经济“再平衡”过程中美国将会实现双向套利。作为持有大量美元外汇资产的美国最大逆差国,中国应该保持人民币与美元汇率的稳定,逐步减持美元债券,加快生产与贸易结构调整,推动国际经济体制和国际金融体系的改革。
The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States triggered the global financial crisis. Long-term low interest rate monetary policy and deficit fiscal policy are the main causes of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. Trade protection and the devaluation of the dollar will be the United States’ important policy orientation for reducing the trade deficit and stimulating economic recovery in the future. The United States will achieve a two-way arbitrage in the process of so-called world economy “rebalancing.” As the largest U.S. deficit country holding a large amount of foreign exchange assets, China should keep its exchange rate stable with the U.S. dollar, gradually reduce its holdings of U.S. dollar bonds, speed up the readjustment of its production and trade structure and promote the reform of the international economic system and the international financial system.