论文部分内容阅读
基于1995年1月~2014年12月我国大豆、豆油月度价格数据,在分析“大豆批发价格—豆油批发价格—豆油零售价格”长期均衡关系的基础上,利用格兰杰因果检验分析价格传递路径,并应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析纵向价格在面对短期冲击时的反应时间和传递强度。研究结论表明:大豆产业链上的价格呈反向传递,属于下游拉动上游的传递机制,豆油零售价是豆油批发价变化的原因,豆油批发价是大豆批发价变化的原因;同时存在着价格传递的不对称,豆油批发商和零售商存在一定的市场力量,在大豆产业链中占据主导地位。在短期传递速度上,大豆产业链的下游价格对上游价格的传递速度均滞后一期,并表现为正向影响;短期传递强度存在非对称性,豆油批发价的传递强度最高。
Based on the monthly price data of soybean and soybean oil in China from January 1995 to December 2014, based on the analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship between the wholesale price of soya bean, the wholesale price of soybean oil and the retail price of soybean oil, the price of Granger causality test was used to analyze the price Transfer path, and use impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze the longitudinal price response time and transmission intensity in the face of short-term impact. The conclusion of the research is that the price in the soybean industry chain is reversely transmitted, which belongs to the transmission mechanism of the downstream driving the upstream. The retail price of soybean oil is the reason for the change of soybean oil wholesale price. The wholesale price of soybean oil is the reason for the change of soybean wholesale price. Of the asymmetry, there is a certain market power for wholesalers and retailers of soybean oil, occupy a dominant position in the soybean industry chain. In terms of short-term transmission speed, the downstream price of soybean industry chain lags behind the transmission speed of the upstream price for one period and shows a positive impact; the intensity of short-term transmission has asymmetry and the transmission intensity of soybean oil wholesale price is the highest.