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本文以集中发布了分析师行为规范的2005年为转折点,参考对比随机模型和管理层预测,在年报公布后的长窗口内检验分析师的盈利预测代表投资者盈利预期的能力是否有所提高。结果表明,在2005年之后,伴随着分析师预测准确度的提高,其代表市场预期的能力也有所提高,这从投资者认同的角度揭示了我国分析师行业的逐步规范和发展。本文的发现还表明,相对于管理层预测和随机模型的预测而言,分析师预测可能是更合适的市场预期替代变量。
In this paper, we focus on the turning point of 2005, in which the Code of Conduct for Analysts was released, and compare the stochastic model with the management’s forecast to test whether the ability of analysts ’profit forecast on behalf of investors’ earnings expectations is improved in the long window after the publication of the annual report. The results show that after 2005, accompanied by the improvement of the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts, their ability to represent market expectations has also increased. This reveals the gradual normative and development of China’s analyst industry from the perspective of investors. The findings of this paper also show that analysts’ forecasts may be a more appropriate proxy for market expectations than management’s projections and stochastic model predictions.