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新建住房吸纳周期,即期末可售新房存量与每月销售速率的比值。在房地产市场分析中,新建住房吸纳周期经常作为一个反映市场供需状况的重要指标出现。大多数美国咨询机构认为,正常市场中吸纳周期应在6个月左右,吸纳周期过长说明买方主导市场,过短说明卖方主导市场。在我国,由于住房市场与美国存在较大差异,吸纳周期的含义也会有所差别,但国内学术界对这个指标的研究并不丰富。本文从两个方面扩展了郑思齐、刘洪玉(2004)对吸纳周期的研究:首先,本文把研究范围扩大到全国39个重点城市,考察“吸纳周期领先于住房价格变化”是否普遍成立;其次,本文设计了针对我国城市的预警方案,并用近5年以来的数据进行了检验。
New housing absorption cycle, the end of the current sale of new home inventory and the ratio of monthly sales rate. In the analysis of the real estate market, the absorption cycle of new housing often appears as an important indicator reflecting the market supply and demand situation. Most U.S. consultancies think that the absorption period in the normal market should be around 6 months. The long period of absorption indicates that the buyer leads the market and the seller’s market is too short. In our country, due to the big difference between the housing market and the United States, the meaning of the absorption cycle will be different, but the domestic academic research on this indicator is not rich. This paper extends Zheng Siqi and Liu Hongyu’s (2004) study of the absorption cycle from two aspects. Firstly, this article extends the scope of the study to 39 major cities nationwide and examines whether “absorption cycle ahead of housing price change” is generally established. Secondly, , This paper designed an early warning plan for the cities in our country and tested it with the data from the past 5 years.