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通过一项基于全人群的大肠癌病例对照研究数据，分析大肠癌常见症状在一般人群（１４５例）和大肠癌新发病例（１３２８例）中的频数分布，探讨常见症状对大肠癌筛检所能提供的效力；结合该人群大肠癌主要危险因素，拟合大肠癌发生概率模型，并作回代检验。结果表明：①三种症状（慢性腹泻、血便及经常便秘）的任意两种阳性者在大肠癌病例组中占１５％，而人群对照组中仅为３％。②当选择大肠癌发生概率（Ｐｘ）临界值为０．６５时，通过所拟合的数学模型能检及３０．０％的大肠癌病例，而因此的初筛阳性率为６．７％。③数学模型与ＦＯＢ检测结合将可能检及７０％～８０％的大肠癌病例，并使高危人群浓集度在８％～１０％。
Through a case-control study of colorectal cancer based on the entire population, the frequency distribution of common colorectal cancer symptoms in the general population (145 cases) and new colorectal cancer cases (1328 cases) was analyzed to investigate the common symptoms of colorectal cancer screening. The effectiveness that can be provided; combined with the main risk factors of colorectal cancer in this population, fit the probability model of colorectal cancer occurrence, and make a backtest. The results showed that: 1) Any two positive cases of three symptoms (chronic diarrhea, bloody stool, and frequent constipation) accounted for 15% in the colorectal cancer case group, and only 3% in the population control group. 2 When the critical value of colorectal cancer incidence probability (Px) was chosen as 0.65, 30.0% of colorectal cancer cases could be detected by the fitted mathematical model, and the primary screening positive rate was 6.7%. 3 The combination of mathematical model and FOB detection may detect 70% to 80% of colorectal cancer cases, and make the high-risk population concentration range from 8% to 10%.