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本文通过对美国、日本的利率市场化经验的分析,探讨了短期利率与利率市场化的关系:其中美国利率市场化过程遇到两次石油危机,其国内出现历史上罕见的“滞胀”经济情景,短期利率受通胀高居不下的影响一直保持高位,而日本的利率市场化过程,由于价格管制得当和货币紧缩政策的良好运用,利率市场化期间通胀基本一直保持下落,短期利率也随CPI下落而下降。根据国际比较研究并结合对未来通货膨胀走势的判断,本文判断我国在利率市场化过程中,短期资金利率水平并不一定维持高位。
Based on the analysis of the interest rate marketization in the United States and Japan, this paper explores the relationship between the short-term interest rate and the marketization of interest rates: the U.S. marketization of interest rate has encountered two oil crises and its history has seen a rare “stagflation” In the economic scenario, the short-term interest rate has been kept at a high level due to the high inflation rate. Due to the well-regulated price control and the tight monetary policy, the inflation in the interest rate marketization period has been basically maintained and the short-term interest rate has also risen with the CPI Fall and fall. According to the international comparative study and the judgment of the trend of future inflation, this paper judges that in the process of the interest rate marketization, the short-term capital interest rate level may not be maintained at a high level.