论文部分内容阅读
寻找有效的中国碳排放量预测方法,对于制定环境政策有重要意义.工业生产与环境污染关系密切,但现有研究大多聚焦于经济与环境的关系,对碳排放量预测方法或指标研究有限.文章尝试以工业增加值占国内生产总值的比重作为反映经济活动的代表性指标,通过隐马尔科夫链预测我国碳排放量,并与常用模型或指标的预测效果做了对比分析.分析显示,隐马尔科夫链拟合效果好,工业增加值比重可有效反映我国碳排放趋势,从而为碳排放预测提供了新的解决思路.
Finding an effective method for predicting carbon emissions in China is of great significance to formulating environmental policies.Industrial production is closely related to environmental pollution, but most of existing researches focus on the relationship between economy and environment, and the research on methods or indicators of carbon emissions prediction is limited. The article attempts to use the proportion of industrial added value to GDP as a representative index to reflect economic activities, and to predict the carbon emissions in China through Hidden Markov Chain, and make comparative analysis with the forecasting effect of common models or indicators. , Hidden Markov chain fit good effect, the proportion of industrial added value can effectively reflect the trend of China’s carbon emissions, carbon emissions forecast for the provision of a new solution.