论文部分内容阅读
基于《农民工参加基本养老保险办法》而开展的我国农民工养老保险未来收支状况的精算分析。结果表明,将农民工纳入基本养老保险制度有助于改变我国城镇人口的年龄结构,将转轨成本的偿付与人口老龄化带来的养老金支付压力,在时间上予以错开,从而对养老资金缺口从量上和时间上给予平滑,减轻单个年份资金缺口偿付的压力。但是,随着城镇化进程的加快,以及人口再生产类型逐步进入低生育阶段,农民工数量的增长率逐年下降,再加上农民工退休人口的增加,农民工养老保险未来会出现收不抵支的状况。长期来看农民工基本养老保险会给整个养老保险系统带来负担。
Actuarial Analysis on the Future Income and Expenses of China ’s Migrant Workers’ Endowment Insurance Based on “Measures for Migrant Workers to Participate in Basic Endowment Insurance”. The results show that the inclusion of migrant workers in the basic old-age insurance system can help to change the age structure of urban population in our country, and the payment of transition costs and the pension payment pressure brought by the aging of population are staggered in time, To smooth the volume and time, reduce the pressure of reimbursement of funding gap in a single year. However, with the acceleration of urbanization and the gradual entry of population reproduction into the low birth stage, the growth rate of the number of migrant workers has been declining year by year. Coupled with the increase in the number of retired migrant workers, pension insurance for migrant workers will not receive any payment in the future The situation. In the long run, migrant workers’ basic old-age insurance will bring a burden to the entire pension insurance system.