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林木种子产量预测预报是种子经营工作的重要环节。传统的预测预报方法一般都比较粗放,难以满足当今生产管理的需要,如产量目测法、标准枝法等。近年来有人应用气象学法和灰色动态模型预测法预测林木种子产量,尽管工作量小,技术先进,但由于难以获得可靠的产量历史资料,难以普遍应用。一个好的预测方法必须具备下述三个条件:1.时间超前;2.精度高;3.简便实用。基于这一思路,本文在研究杉木球花及球果在树冠上分布规律的基础上,探讨了利用开花结实信息段预测杉木种子园和一般林分球果产量的方法。
Forest seed yield forecasting is an important part of seed management. The traditional methods of forecasting and forecasting are generally extensive, which are difficult to meet the needs of the current production management, such as the production visual method and the standard branch method. In recent years, some people use meteorological method and gray dynamic model prediction method to forecast forest tree seed yield, but it is hard to be widely used because of its low workload and advanced technology. A good prediction method must have the following three conditions: 1. Time ahead; 2. High precision; 3. Simple and practical. Based on this idea, based on the study of the distribution rules of Chinese fir and cones on canopy, the methods of predicting the production of Chinese fir seed orchard and coniferous forest with flowering and fruiting segments were discussed in this paper.