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已有的前兆模型大体上可分两类:一类从完整岩石的破裂试验为基础,得出破裂区(震中)附近完全一致的前兆曲线;另一类以数理理论为基础,推得震源区附近有力学性质不同的区域,而同一性质的区域有与构造应力同步的前兆曲线。由于它们的前提与实际情况有较大的差异,没有考虑孕震区中原有裂纹的存在,这些前兆模型似不能很好地说明许多震例中的复杂的前兆现象。本文在“构造地震的局部内应力源模式”和“失稳破裂与蠕裂”两文的基础上,进一步讨论由于震前蠕裂所产生的应力场的时空变化而感生的前兆特征。
There are two types of precursor models in general: one is based on the complete rock fracture test, and the exact same precursor curve near the rupture zone (epicenter) is obtained. On the other hand, based on mathematical theory, There are nearby regions of different mechanical properties, while regions of the same nature have precursor curves that are synchronized with tectonic stress. Because of their great differences between the premise and the actual situation, they do not consider the existence of the original cracks in the seismogenic zone. These precursory models do not seem to be able to explain the complicated precursors in many earthquake cases well. Based on the two texts of local stress source model for structural seismics and instability rupture and creep, the paper further discusses the precursory features induced by the spatiotemporal variation of stress field caused by pre-earthquake rupture.