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以10个主要国家(地区)为代表,本文用时间序列方法估计了世界经济波动对我国外商投资的影响。实证结果表明,韩国、新加坡和美国的GDP增加(或减少)1个百分点将引起其对我国的外商投资增加(或减少)4~5个百分点,而日本和欧洲国家的GDP增加(或减少)1个百分点将引起其对我国的外商投资增加(或减少)8个百分点以上。总体上看,世界GDP变动1个百分点将引起我国的外商投资变动5.7个百分点。
Taking the 10 major countries and regions as representatives, this paper estimates the impact of the world economic fluctuations on China’s foreign investment by using time series method. Empirical results show that a 1 percentage point increase (or decrease) in the GDP of South Korea, Singapore and the United States will result in a 4 to 5 percentage points increase (or decrease) in their foreign investment in China, while the increase (or decrease) in the GDP of Japan and European countries, 1 percentage point will cause its foreign investment in China to increase (or decrease) more than 8 percentage points. Overall, a 1 percentage point change in world GDP will cause a 5.7 percentage point change in China’s foreign investment.