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一般农作物病虫害的发生通常用“轻、中、重”等表达,这是一个模糊概念,并没有明确的界限。同样,水稻稻瘟病的发生也有其模糊性,不确定性。作者运用模糊隶属度的方法对晚稻稻瘟病的预报作了一个尝试。通过对桐乡县15年历史资料的拟合,符合率高达93.3%,并对1986—1990年晚稻稻瘟病进行试报,预报与实际结果相符,为此,认为模糊隶属度法应用于晚稻稻瘟病的发生预测是可行的。
The general crop pests and diseases are usually “light, medium and heavy” expression, which is a vague concept, there is no clear boundary. Similarly, the occurrence of rice blast also has its ambiguity and uncertainty. The author uses the method of fuzzy membership degree to make an attempt to predict rice blast in late rice. Through the fitting of 15-year historical data of Tongxiang County, the coincidence rate is as high as 93.3%, and the report of the late rice blast of 1986-1990 is reported and the forecast is consistent with the actual results. Therefore, the fuzzy membership degree method is applied to late rice blast The occurrence of the forecast is feasible.